Sunday, August 29, 2004
Chatting Up The GM
I hate to be a disappointment to Rowdy, but I just haven't been able to follow the ballteam closely enough in the last week or two to have any wonderfully pithy comments to make. And I don't enjoy watching that cheaty weasel Lawyer LaRussa and his fuggin' Cardinals beat up on us anyway. Sure it's jealousy, but it still sucks. So although this dates back to last January, I thought it might be worthwhile to recycle another bit of mailing list content, which is actually a pretty good story IIDSSM. People on my list still refer to it occasionally, in fact one of them recently had a chance to talk to Dave Littlefield and brought it up to him, and DL still remembers it too.
It begins with the Pirate Caravan's scheduled appearance at the Logan Valley Mall in Altoona on the evening of January 27th, 2004, after a daytime stop in Latrobe. The Caravan is an offseason thing where some of the team folks get on a chartered bus and make shopping-mall appearances throughout the Bucco region, to sign autographs and fire up the faithful prior to the start of the new year's Spring Training. The day in question had the mother of all snowstorms wreaking havoc in Central PA. "DogBoy", if you don't already know, is my spouse.
-=-=-=-=-
Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 11:35:24
Reply-To: Pittsburgh Pirates Mailing List
From: Leeeny
Subject: Pirate Caravan/Altoona
Change in plans -
I'm still not going to go to the mall thing tonight, however in a surprise development, I have secured an invitation for DogBoy and I to attend the "VIP Reception" from 5:30-6:30pm, to be held in the home clubhouse at Blair County Ballpark. I could tell you how I wangled the invite, but then I'd have to kill you.
So we're going to brave the weather forecast and head down there. Pirates folks slated to be present: Littlefield, Fogg, Wells, Kent Tekulve, Lanny, and Walkie.
I have no idea whether this is just a schmooze-fest or whether there will be opportunities for questions, but if anyone has anything they'd like me to attempt to ask, I'll write it down and take it with me. No guarantees though, I am not going to pigeonhole DL and conduct an interrogation.
Post by 4pm if you want me to see your question before we leave. Post-event report shall be submitted. (No film at 11 though, I am not tacky enough to take a camera.)
Leeeny
1/27 1132est
-=-=-=-=-
(so then the report, later that night)
-=-=-=-=-
Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 20:25:35
Reply-To: Pittsburgh Pirates Mailing List
From: Leeeny
Subject: Non Reception Report
Well, WE were there...
We left at 4:45 to get to the ballpark by 5:30 - normally it's only a 20 minute hop. Went in the bigass pickup truck with the 4WD on.
I-99 had not been plowed at all so it was slow going, and at times the storm had us pretty blind, but we made it down to the park by 5:25. The insanity of being out voluntarily in weather like this showed how desperate one gets for anything Live and Baseballish in the depths of a miserable winter. I mean, I drove through a BLIZZARD to go listen to people talk about the PIRATES - I think I need HELP.
There was no bus in the parking lot. Not a good sign.
As we entered the office, the office lady queried, "Are you here for the reception?" "Yes." "We got a call from the Pirate guys on their bus at 5:00, they were on the turnpike stuck behind an accident, nobody was moving." Reception cancelled.
The bus was still going to try to get to the mall by 7pm so they could make at least that portion of their appearance, but DogBoy and I didn't have plans to stick around for that anyway, so I don't know whether they actually made it or not. By that point the snow was letting up a bit, so he and I figured we may as well go eat while we were down in 'Toona and somewhat dressed up, and that is what we did. The snow had almost stopped by the time we were done with our meal, so maybe the thing at the mall came off okay anyway. I suppose it will be in the newspaper tomorrow.
Pure Murphy that the bus's trip from Latrobe to Altoona had to occur just as the very worst part of the storm came through that same location.
I'm bummed, I really DID want to ask DL those questions. I tried, guys.
Leeeny
1/27 2019est
-=-=-=-=-
(time passes... a little more than a week later)
-=-=-=-=-
Date: Thu, 5 Feb 2004 02:41:20
Reply-To: Pittsburgh Pirates Mailing List
From: Leeeny
Subject: Wed. pm phone call
Well now I know why Denis asked me for my phone number a couple nights ago - and here I thought he wanted to ask me out on a date to PirateFest.
DogBoy was just about to go out the door to work tonight, about 10:15pm (third shift week). Phone rang, and at that late hour it's usually someone calling about beagles. I let him pick it up so he could arrange a better time for the guy to call back.
I was working upstairs at the time, on a balky computer. DogBoy yells up the steps, "Hey, it's the call from that list guy of yours you've been waiting for, it must be him because he's saying that he's Dave Littlefield".
O-kay...
You can see this coming a mile away, can't you. Do I need to tell you who it was?
Fortunately, as soon as I got on the line and heard him say hello, I knew that it really was him, so I avoided making an idiot of myself blathering those "naaah, get-outta-here" rejoinders you make when you think someone is pulling your leg on the telephone. Thank heavens.
So we had a very nice 45 minute (!) conversation till shortly after 11pm, and I am trying to reconstruct it in my somewhat scrambled brain to get it down here. The reason he called was because he had gotten passed a copy of my post to this here list from last week, about my Adventures-In-Meteorology Pirate Caravan Blizzard Escapade. Hence the fingerprints of Denis all over the email, maybe in juuuuust-a-little conspiracy with a suspected third party in the team offices. I won't forget this, Denis, Just You Wait.
After the introductory pleasantries were done, DL first said there'd be a signing announcement today (Thursday). I was still a bit discombobulated at this early point in the conversation, I believe it was Mark Guthrie. Sorry not to be 100% sure on that, maybe it will be announced by the time you read this. I wasn't taking written notes, I was lucky to be breathing that first minute or two, till the shock wore off. He also mentioned working still on Travis Lee or Randall Simon deals. No sausage comments from moi. He was impressed that I remembered that Travis's brother Taber was a draft pick a couple of years ago (2002), still playing below the level where I'd have seen him here in Altoona.
I did actually remember some of the questions from last week that I didn't get to ask then.
I brought up the whole Play-The-Kids vs Band-Aid-Fixes issue, to make Wilbur happy (maybe). DL feels that we have too many players in our farm system who simply would not be able to do the job NOW if he prematurely accelerated their rise to the Pirates. He's aware of comments that the 'progression rate' has slowed down under his aegis, players spending more time in a level before moving up, but he feels that it is crucial not to have them playing above what they're ready for. And some of that is maturity and discipline as well as just developing skills. He feels that 2005 is going to see some of these guys start to make appearances and impact in Pittsburgh. Davis, Alvarez, etc. For the short term, he has to put a product on the field that will have some ability to sell tickets without the sort of flailing that he feels a team full of untested kids would do, to the detriment of the team, the players themselves, and the morale of the fans in the seats, whom he feels would shortly become fans not in the seats, staying away in even larger droves than before. Trying to maintain as much of a grip on the fiscal responsibility as possible while trying for incremental gains, until the more significant gains can start to kick in. He feels that 2005 is realistic for a bigger improvement than anything we've seen in recent years, as the beginning of seeing some results to the work he's been trying to do since he came here. The 16-ton weight of the prior Big&Bad Contracts is finally lifting, which helps too. He cited the inverse relationship between our increases in payroll since PNC opened and the lack of success resulting therefrom, however he allowed that the Big&Bad Contracts had much to do with that. Poor and/or unlucky moves like that, especially more than one at once, we are just not able to swallow without visible injury.
He feels the farm system has depth in pitching but position players are more iffy. Also the Nashville team contributes to the "our farm teams all win" aura but they've got a lot of players who really are permanent-quad-A type guys, not really good future answers for the Bucs. Used Altoona's Favorite Outfielder as an example of that sort of guy. ("Watch out how you talk about our boy Adam, Dave, them's fightin' words.") Still feels that you've got to concentrate on pitching in the draft when there are good choices to pick, because the ratio of entry-level pitchers to guys who make it to the majors is so low. Pitching is the most valuable thing you can acquire for your money.
He would LOVE to have the farm guys come up if he felt with any sense of reasonable certainty that they could do the job now -- because they are the least expensive alternative. So the fact that he isn't doing it, and pursues higher-cost players to fill in gaps while he waits, reflects the seesaw between one extreme where we'd be even more lousy than we are now, in order to perhaps save a year or two on the 'timeline' of the return to true competitiveness, but at the cost of continued attendance declines with even more fans becoming badly discouraged, and that translates into $. By taking that timeline out a bit longer, it frustrates the people who are willing to suffer everything severely up front for the quicker payoff, but retains more of the fan base who he doesn't feel would have the stomach for the more drastic approach; and overall the club is healthier over that same period. And it maintains a better personal performance for him in his own job, measured by the things he needs to do to keep it. [I am not evaluating these comments, this is just reporting.] He enjoys the job.
Sveum to Boston: Happy for him, sorry to see him go but it's a great move. A career boost for a guy who stuck it out through difficult times in his playing days, never had the personal success he probably deserved. [Although Sveumer does have a ring, from one of the Yankees wins IIRC, so it wasn't all bad.] I didn't ask about Tony Beasley's coming to Altoona, I guess I shoulda, oh well. We'll find out soon enough.
Health Of Baseball in general - frustrating, sad to see so much bad opinion of such a good game. My reply was 'It's not the game that is in trouble, it's the business'. Told him I was not a Selig fan, and I'd never go to another ballgame EVER if MLB lets Charlie Hustler into the HOF, but then I offered my novel compromise (at least novel to me, as I haven't seen it in the media anywhere) by which I'd possibly amend that solemn vow: if they insist on letting him in, do it only after he dies. At the next induction ceremony following his 6-feet-under interment. And no disappearing-Elvis stunts either. He gets his plaque for Posterity (with all of his history on it, not just the whitewashed version), but he doesn't get to cash in on it during his own lifetime. DL thought that was interesting, he hadn't heard anyone mention it before either. Now he has.
ARam: I pretty much just asked flat-out "Was there any rationale besides money for making that move?" I was curious about the off-field issues too, but DL said that while they were frustrating to deal with and he didn't think they'd improve, that he'd have been willing to put up with them if he had seen any hope that Ramirez wasn't going to end up as a $6-million-dollar mediocre first-baseman and eventual trade-bait to the AL as a DH. He could not get past the fact that Aramis has had twice as many fielding errors as the next-worst 3B-man (it was either "twice as many" or "50 more", I can't remember, but you can go look up the stat if you insist on precision). ARam was too young to be paid that much money with that serious of a flaw at 3B, and if you put him at 1B, then you can get a lot more bang for your $6M by filling that position with someone else. So I had no problem with that explanation, since I remember with no joy the gut-wrenching feeling every time a ball got hit up the left side, and how nice that feeling was when the trade was made and the feeling stopped. It's sad to think that a kid that young is already being slotted by his own GM as a designated hitter. [I told DL he didn't want me to even start in on the DH.] DL thinks ARam can become a significant hitter as he gains more experience, and that aspect was frustrating to give up, but the defense coupled with the cost was what did it for him. So there you have it, Wilbur, straight from the trigger-puller.
But sorry to admit, Russ, that I didn't bring up JR House. Nobody bats a thousand. At that point I felt like I had taken more than enough of his time, so I told him that DogBoy and I would be going to Bradenton for the first time ever towards the end of March, and that we'd be sitting in Denning's seats ;-). He said to be sure to stop and re-introduce ourselves. I told him we had been introduced once before, at his first game at Blair County Ballpark shortly after he got the GM job - Denning was there too. That's somewhere in the list archives, I expect.
I am BEYOND impressed with the idea that this man would take the time in the middle of all these negotiations and signings and ST-preparations, to ring up some semi-random fan who doesn't know enough to stay out of bad weather, and yak for 45 minutes late on a Wednesday night. Whether or not one agrees with all of his decisions, he's made serious personal/integrity points with me now on both occasions where I've had the chance to speak with him. He's gained an extension on benefit-of-the-doubt, at any rate. Given the constraints he's working under, he really does appear to be doing what he sincerely thinks is best for the Pirates and their fans. I get no hint of cynicism or trying to put up a front; he's very honest and candid, probably more so in this type of private conversation than the media-speak he has to put forth when people are covering him as news. He didn't waffle on anything I asked him, although I admit I didn't come out gunning and ask stuff like "So how much money did Kevin REALLY make last year?". Have to have some manners after all, when the guy was nice enough to cold-call me (oh how apt).
So, boys, there it is - better late than never, somewhat paraphrased but most of the good bits.
You know it just strikes me now that neither of us mentioned McClendon even once. Significant?
We'll see if I am right about Guthrie or not.
Leeeny
2/5 0240est
-=-=-=-=-
It was Guthrie, by the way.
It begins with the Pirate Caravan's scheduled appearance at the Logan Valley Mall in Altoona on the evening of January 27th, 2004, after a daytime stop in Latrobe. The Caravan is an offseason thing where some of the team folks get on a chartered bus and make shopping-mall appearances throughout the Bucco region, to sign autographs and fire up the faithful prior to the start of the new year's Spring Training. The day in question had the mother of all snowstorms wreaking havoc in Central PA. "DogBoy", if you don't already know, is my spouse.
-=-=-=-=-
Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 11:35:24
Reply-To: Pittsburgh Pirates Mailing List
From: Leeeny
Subject: Pirate Caravan/Altoona
Change in plans -
I'm still not going to go to the mall thing tonight, however in a surprise development, I have secured an invitation for DogBoy and I to attend the "VIP Reception" from 5:30-6:30pm, to be held in the home clubhouse at Blair County Ballpark. I could tell you how I wangled the invite, but then I'd have to kill you.
So we're going to brave the weather forecast and head down there. Pirates folks slated to be present: Littlefield, Fogg, Wells, Kent Tekulve, Lanny, and Walkie.
I have no idea whether this is just a schmooze-fest or whether there will be opportunities for questions, but if anyone has anything they'd like me to attempt to ask, I'll write it down and take it with me. No guarantees though, I am not going to pigeonhole DL and conduct an interrogation.
Post by 4pm if you want me to see your question before we leave. Post-event report shall be submitted. (No film at 11 though, I am not tacky enough to take a camera.)
Leeeny
1/27 1132est
-=-=-=-=-
(so then the report, later that night)
-=-=-=-=-
Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 20:25:35
Reply-To: Pittsburgh Pirates Mailing List
From: Leeeny
Subject: Non Reception Report
Well, WE were there...
We left at 4:45 to get to the ballpark by 5:30 - normally it's only a 20 minute hop. Went in the bigass pickup truck with the 4WD on.
I-99 had not been plowed at all so it was slow going, and at times the storm had us pretty blind, but we made it down to the park by 5:25. The insanity of being out voluntarily in weather like this showed how desperate one gets for anything Live and Baseballish in the depths of a miserable winter. I mean, I drove through a BLIZZARD to go listen to people talk about the PIRATES - I think I need HELP.
There was no bus in the parking lot. Not a good sign.
As we entered the office, the office lady queried, "Are you here for the reception?" "Yes." "We got a call from the Pirate guys on their bus at 5:00, they were on the turnpike stuck behind an accident, nobody was moving." Reception cancelled.
The bus was still going to try to get to the mall by 7pm so they could make at least that portion of their appearance, but DogBoy and I didn't have plans to stick around for that anyway, so I don't know whether they actually made it or not. By that point the snow was letting up a bit, so he and I figured we may as well go eat while we were down in 'Toona and somewhat dressed up, and that is what we did. The snow had almost stopped by the time we were done with our meal, so maybe the thing at the mall came off okay anyway. I suppose it will be in the newspaper tomorrow.
Pure Murphy that the bus's trip from Latrobe to Altoona had to occur just as the very worst part of the storm came through that same location.
I'm bummed, I really DID want to ask DL those questions. I tried, guys.
Leeeny
1/27 2019est
-=-=-=-=-
(time passes... a little more than a week later)
-=-=-=-=-
Date: Thu, 5 Feb 2004 02:41:20
Reply-To: Pittsburgh Pirates Mailing List
From: Leeeny
Subject: Wed. pm phone call
Well now I know why Denis asked me for my phone number a couple nights ago - and here I thought he wanted to ask me out on a date to PirateFest.
DogBoy was just about to go out the door to work tonight, about 10:15pm (third shift week). Phone rang, and at that late hour it's usually someone calling about beagles. I let him pick it up so he could arrange a better time for the guy to call back.
I was working upstairs at the time, on a balky computer. DogBoy yells up the steps, "Hey, it's the call from that list guy of yours you've been waiting for, it must be him because he's saying that he's Dave Littlefield".
O-kay...
You can see this coming a mile away, can't you. Do I need to tell you who it was?
Fortunately, as soon as I got on the line and heard him say hello, I knew that it really was him, so I avoided making an idiot of myself blathering those "naaah, get-outta-here" rejoinders you make when you think someone is pulling your leg on the telephone. Thank heavens.
So we had a very nice 45 minute (!) conversation till shortly after 11pm, and I am trying to reconstruct it in my somewhat scrambled brain to get it down here. The reason he called was because he had gotten passed a copy of my post to this here list from last week, about my Adventures-In-Meteorology Pirate Caravan Blizzard Escapade. Hence the fingerprints of Denis all over the email, maybe in juuuuust-a-little conspiracy with a suspected third party in the team offices. I won't forget this, Denis, Just You Wait.
After the introductory pleasantries were done, DL first said there'd be a signing announcement today (Thursday). I was still a bit discombobulated at this early point in the conversation, I believe it was Mark Guthrie. Sorry not to be 100% sure on that, maybe it will be announced by the time you read this. I wasn't taking written notes, I was lucky to be breathing that first minute or two, till the shock wore off. He also mentioned working still on Travis Lee or Randall Simon deals. No sausage comments from moi. He was impressed that I remembered that Travis's brother Taber was a draft pick a couple of years ago (2002), still playing below the level where I'd have seen him here in Altoona.
I did actually remember some of the questions from last week that I didn't get to ask then.
I brought up the whole Play-The-Kids vs Band-Aid-Fixes issue, to make Wilbur happy (maybe). DL feels that we have too many players in our farm system who simply would not be able to do the job NOW if he prematurely accelerated their rise to the Pirates. He's aware of comments that the 'progression rate' has slowed down under his aegis, players spending more time in a level before moving up, but he feels that it is crucial not to have them playing above what they're ready for. And some of that is maturity and discipline as well as just developing skills. He feels that 2005 is going to see some of these guys start to make appearances and impact in Pittsburgh. Davis, Alvarez, etc. For the short term, he has to put a product on the field that will have some ability to sell tickets without the sort of flailing that he feels a team full of untested kids would do, to the detriment of the team, the players themselves, and the morale of the fans in the seats, whom he feels would shortly become fans not in the seats, staying away in even larger droves than before. Trying to maintain as much of a grip on the fiscal responsibility as possible while trying for incremental gains, until the more significant gains can start to kick in. He feels that 2005 is realistic for a bigger improvement than anything we've seen in recent years, as the beginning of seeing some results to the work he's been trying to do since he came here. The 16-ton weight of the prior Big&Bad Contracts is finally lifting, which helps too. He cited the inverse relationship between our increases in payroll since PNC opened and the lack of success resulting therefrom, however he allowed that the Big&Bad Contracts had much to do with that. Poor and/or unlucky moves like that, especially more than one at once, we are just not able to swallow without visible injury.
He feels the farm system has depth in pitching but position players are more iffy. Also the Nashville team contributes to the "our farm teams all win" aura but they've got a lot of players who really are permanent-quad-A type guys, not really good future answers for the Bucs. Used Altoona's Favorite Outfielder as an example of that sort of guy. ("Watch out how you talk about our boy Adam, Dave, them's fightin' words.") Still feels that you've got to concentrate on pitching in the draft when there are good choices to pick, because the ratio of entry-level pitchers to guys who make it to the majors is so low. Pitching is the most valuable thing you can acquire for your money.
He would LOVE to have the farm guys come up if he felt with any sense of reasonable certainty that they could do the job now -- because they are the least expensive alternative. So the fact that he isn't doing it, and pursues higher-cost players to fill in gaps while he waits, reflects the seesaw between one extreme where we'd be even more lousy than we are now, in order to perhaps save a year or two on the 'timeline' of the return to true competitiveness, but at the cost of continued attendance declines with even more fans becoming badly discouraged, and that translates into $. By taking that timeline out a bit longer, it frustrates the people who are willing to suffer everything severely up front for the quicker payoff, but retains more of the fan base who he doesn't feel would have the stomach for the more drastic approach; and overall the club is healthier over that same period. And it maintains a better personal performance for him in his own job, measured by the things he needs to do to keep it. [I am not evaluating these comments, this is just reporting.] He enjoys the job.
Sveum to Boston: Happy for him, sorry to see him go but it's a great move. A career boost for a guy who stuck it out through difficult times in his playing days, never had the personal success he probably deserved. [Although Sveumer does have a ring, from one of the Yankees wins IIRC, so it wasn't all bad.] I didn't ask about Tony Beasley's coming to Altoona, I guess I shoulda, oh well. We'll find out soon enough.
Health Of Baseball in general - frustrating, sad to see so much bad opinion of such a good game. My reply was 'It's not the game that is in trouble, it's the business'. Told him I was not a Selig fan, and I'd never go to another ballgame EVER if MLB lets Charlie Hustler into the HOF, but then I offered my novel compromise (at least novel to me, as I haven't seen it in the media anywhere) by which I'd possibly amend that solemn vow: if they insist on letting him in, do it only after he dies. At the next induction ceremony following his 6-feet-under interment. And no disappearing-Elvis stunts either. He gets his plaque for Posterity (with all of his history on it, not just the whitewashed version), but he doesn't get to cash in on it during his own lifetime. DL thought that was interesting, he hadn't heard anyone mention it before either. Now he has.
ARam: I pretty much just asked flat-out "Was there any rationale besides money for making that move?" I was curious about the off-field issues too, but DL said that while they were frustrating to deal with and he didn't think they'd improve, that he'd have been willing to put up with them if he had seen any hope that Ramirez wasn't going to end up as a $6-million-dollar mediocre first-baseman and eventual trade-bait to the AL as a DH. He could not get past the fact that Aramis has had twice as many fielding errors as the next-worst 3B-man (it was either "twice as many" or "50 more", I can't remember, but you can go look up the stat if you insist on precision). ARam was too young to be paid that much money with that serious of a flaw at 3B, and if you put him at 1B, then you can get a lot more bang for your $6M by filling that position with someone else. So I had no problem with that explanation, since I remember with no joy the gut-wrenching feeling every time a ball got hit up the left side, and how nice that feeling was when the trade was made and the feeling stopped. It's sad to think that a kid that young is already being slotted by his own GM as a designated hitter. [I told DL he didn't want me to even start in on the DH.] DL thinks ARam can become a significant hitter as he gains more experience, and that aspect was frustrating to give up, but the defense coupled with the cost was what did it for him. So there you have it, Wilbur, straight from the trigger-puller.
But sorry to admit, Russ, that I didn't bring up JR House. Nobody bats a thousand. At that point I felt like I had taken more than enough of his time, so I told him that DogBoy and I would be going to Bradenton for the first time ever towards the end of March, and that we'd be sitting in Denning's seats ;-). He said to be sure to stop and re-introduce ourselves. I told him we had been introduced once before, at his first game at Blair County Ballpark shortly after he got the GM job - Denning was there too. That's somewhere in the list archives, I expect.
I am BEYOND impressed with the idea that this man would take the time in the middle of all these negotiations and signings and ST-preparations, to ring up some semi-random fan who doesn't know enough to stay out of bad weather, and yak for 45 minutes late on a Wednesday night. Whether or not one agrees with all of his decisions, he's made serious personal/integrity points with me now on both occasions where I've had the chance to speak with him. He's gained an extension on benefit-of-the-doubt, at any rate. Given the constraints he's working under, he really does appear to be doing what he sincerely thinks is best for the Pirates and their fans. I get no hint of cynicism or trying to put up a front; he's very honest and candid, probably more so in this type of private conversation than the media-speak he has to put forth when people are covering him as news. He didn't waffle on anything I asked him, although I admit I didn't come out gunning and ask stuff like "So how much money did Kevin REALLY make last year?". Have to have some manners after all, when the guy was nice enough to cold-call me (oh how apt).
So, boys, there it is - better late than never, somewhat paraphrased but most of the good bits.
You know it just strikes me now that neither of us mentioned McClendon even once. Significant?
We'll see if I am right about Guthrie or not.
Leeeny
2/5 0240est
-=-=-=-=-
It was Guthrie, by the way.
Tuesday, August 17, 2004
Bangs For Bucks
or, Too Bad They Don't Grade On A Curve
I first did this little investigation at the end of May, as a result of a very atypical stats-geek whim. Posted it to my mailing list, and made intimations that I'd revisit the table in midseason and at year's end.
So, voilà. It was getting a little big for a list post, so here it is instead, and with the older table along for the ride also.
I am not going to go into reams of analysis -- if you are looking at this, then almost certainly you're a bigger stathead than I am, and the numbers suggest things to you that I don't need to explain. I thought it was interesting the first time around, and now that there's a bit of movement-through-time, it's also interesting to see what's the same or different after 10 more weeks' worth of games. The only thing that is a bit squiffy from a data standpoint is that I can't cite the payroll sources very well, and in the case of the newer table, I don't know just how those figures were adjusted for midseason player-trades and so forth. I almost ran the second table with the same dollar numbers as the first one, but what the heck. There wasn't a whole lot of movement in rankings with respect to payrolls, so I don't think it farks up the results much either way.
BFB = winning % / payroll, with the decimal fudged several orders of magnitude.
(Time to break out my preformatted-text tag.)
Table 1: Standings through 5/27
Payroll data as of 4/9, taken from http://www.onestopbaseball.com/TeamPayroll.asp.
Table 2: Standings through 8/16
Payroll data from http://dugoutdollars.blogspot.com/2003_06_08_dugoutdollars_archive.html,
using the 2004 payroll column, not the 2004 cap number. Despite the page's dated title, these numbers are supposed to be more recent than the figures used in Table 1. If they're not, sue me.
Discuss amongst yourselves.
I first did this little investigation at the end of May, as a result of a very atypical stats-geek whim. Posted it to my mailing list, and made intimations that I'd revisit the table in midseason and at year's end.
So, voilà. It was getting a little big for a list post, so here it is instead, and with the older table along for the ride also.
I am not going to go into reams of analysis -- if you are looking at this, then almost certainly you're a bigger stathead than I am, and the numbers suggest things to you that I don't need to explain. I thought it was interesting the first time around, and now that there's a bit of movement-through-time, it's also interesting to see what's the same or different after 10 more weeks' worth of games. The only thing that is a bit squiffy from a data standpoint is that I can't cite the payroll sources very well, and in the case of the newer table, I don't know just how those figures were adjusted for midseason player-trades and so forth. I almost ran the second table with the same dollar numbers as the first one, but what the heck. There wasn't a whole lot of movement in rankings with respect to payrolls, so I don't think it farks up the results much either way.
BFB = winning % / payroll, with the decimal fudged several orders of magnitude.
(Time to break out my preformatted-text tag.)
Table 1: Standings through 5/27
Payroll data as of 4/9, taken from http://www.onestopbaseball.com/TeamPayroll.asp.
%Rank Team Record % Payroll$ $Rank BFB BFBRank
T1. Anaheim 29 17 .630 $100,534,667 3 6.266 18
T1. Boston 29 17 .630 $127,298,500 2 4.949 28
3. NYY 27 18 .600 $184,193,950 1 3.257 30
4. Cincy 27 19 .587 $ 46,615,250 24 12.592 4
T5. ChiWS 26 19 .578 $ 65,212,500 15 8.863 13
T5. Minn 26 19 .578 $ 53,585,000 19 10.787 7
T5. Texas 26 19 .578 $ 55,050,417 18 10.499 8
8. Philly 25 19 .568 $ 93,219,167 5 6.093 22
T9. Florida 26 20 .565 $ 42,143,042 25 13.407 3
T9. Houston 26 20 .565 $ 75,397,000 12 7.494 16
T11. ChiC 25 20 .556 $ 90,560,000 7 6.140 T19
T11. Oakland 25 20 .556 $ 59,425,667 16 9.356 11
13. LA 24 20 .545 $ 92,902,001 6 5.866 23
14. SD 25 21 .543 $ 55,384,833 17 9.804 10
15. Milw 23 21 .523 $ 27,528,500 30 18.998 1
16. StL 23 22 .511 $ 83,228,333 9 6.140 T19
17. NYM 23 23 .500 $ 96,660,970 4 5.173 27
18. Atlanta 22 23 .489 $ 90,182,500 8 5.422 25
19. Pgh 20 21 .488 $ 32,227,929 28 15.142 2
20. Balt 20 22 .476 $ 51,623,333 20 9.221 12
T21. Detroit 21 24 .467 $ 46,832,000 23 9.972 9
T21. SF 21 24 .467 $ 82,019,166 10 5.694 24
23. Toronto 19 27 .413 $ 50,017,000 21 8.257 14
24. Cleve 18 26 .409 $ 34,319,300 27 11.917 5
25. Colo 18 27 .400 $ 65,445,167 14 6.112 21
26. Seattle 17 28 .378 $ 81,515,834 11 4.637 29
27. Arizona 17 29 .370 $ 69,780,750 13 5.302 26
28. KC 15 28 .349 $ 47,609,000 22 7.331 17
29. TBay 15 29 .341 $ 29,556,667 29 11.537 6
30. Mtrl 15 31 .326 $ 41,197,500 26 7.913 15
Table 2: Standings through 8/16
Payroll data from http://dugoutdollars.blogspot.com/2003_06_08_dugoutdollars_archive.html,
using the 2004 payroll column, not the 2004 cap number. Despite the page's dated title, these numbers are supposed to be more recent than the figures used in Table 1. If they're not, sue me.
%Rank Team Record % Payroll$ $Rank BFB BFBRank
1. StL 77 40 .658 $ 81,580,000 8 8.066 15
2. NYY 75 42 .641 $182,590,000 1 3.511 30
3. LA 69 48 .590 $ 92,800,000 6 6.358 22
4. Atlanta 67 50 .573 $ 74,430,000 11 7.699 17
5. Oakland 66 52 .559 $ 59,770,000 19 9.352 8
T6. Boston 65 52 .556 $131,400,000 2 4.231 29
T6. Texas 65 52 .556 $ 63,680,000 15 8.731 10
8. Anaheim 65 53 .551 $122,530,000 3 4.497 28
9. Minn 64 53 .547 $ 56,160,000 22 9.740 7
10. SF 65 55 .542 $ 80,320,000 10 6.748 20
11. ChiC 63 54 .538 $ 93,000,000 4 5.785 24
12. SD 63 55 .534 $ 58,570,000 20 9.117 9
13. Cleve 63 57 .525 $ 41,930,000 26 12.521 4
14. ChiWS 59 56 .513 $ 64,180,000 14 7.993 16
15. Florida 59 58 .504 $ 62,270,000 17 8.094 14
16. Philly 59 59 .500 $ 92,930,000 5 5.380 25
T17. Houston 57 60 .487 $ 69,280,000 12 7.029 19
T17. Balt 57 60 .487 $ 58,230,000 21 8.363 11
T19. NYM 56 60 .483 $ 80,570,000 9 5.995 23
T19. Pgh 56 60 .483 $ 32,840,000 28 14.708 3
21. Cincy 56 62 .475 $ 42,050,000 25 11.296 5
22. Milw 54 62 .466 $ 29,280,000 29 15.915 2
23. Detroit 54 63 .462 $ 60,480,000 18 7.639 18
24. TBay 54 64 .458 $ 26,140,000 30 17.521 1
25. Colo 53 65 .449 $ 67,480,000 13 6.654 21
26. Mtrl 49 68 .419 $ 38,770,000 27 10.807 6
27. Toronto 49 70 .412 $ 49,410,000 23 8.338 12
28. Seattle 44 73 .376 $ 83,450,000 7 4.506 27
29. KC 42 74 .362 $ 44,150,000 24 8.199 13
30. Arizona 36 84 .300 $ 63,600,000 16 4.717 26
Discuss amongst yourselves.
